Trey Lance takes over for 49ers, and no one agrees with him

Trey Lance takes over for 49ers, and no one agrees with him

At BetMGM, there is a support for which the quarterback will throw more interceptions this season. Trey Lance took 28% of the money staked on this bracket, by far the highest value in this market.

Lance also has many supporters. Only four players had more money bet on them to win the NFL MVP than Lance at 4.7% (the four before him: Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Tom Brady). There is no consensus on what Lance will be this season. Some people love him coming into the season. Others think he will fail miserably.

This makes for a good debate about Lance’s season totals. His total passing yards on BetMGM is 3,449.5 and his passing touchdowns are 21.5. Your intercept total stands at 10.5 if you like that market.

The Argument for the Over in Trey Lance’s Pass Totals

NFL analysis has become very fast-paced. Lance was the third overall pick last season. However, how many people gave up on it after (checks the grades)… 71 career passes? Lance wasn’t too bad with these passes, posting a 97.3 passer rating.

Lance enters a fantastic situation for a first-time starting quarterback. His receivers are Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Teams need to respect the 49ers’ running game so there’s not excessive pressure on Lance. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is a master at getting attention. It’s hard to get a much better situation to get into.

To reach that total passing yards, Lance would need 203 yards per game if he played all season. Last season, 29 quarterbacks with more than 300 attempts reached that total. One of them was Jimmy Garoppolo with 254 yards per game. Practically speaking, if you’re an NFL starting quarterback, you’re hitting 203 yards per game. Yes, there is injury risk at the end – this needs to be said in every player debate post we will have – but if Lance is healthy for most of the season, the bar set for him is pretty low.

There’s a chance he could crush that total. Touchdown totals can be a little more difficult. Only 14 quarterbacks threw 22 touchdowns last season. But the footage seems low.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance takes over as the team's starter this season.  (AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance takes over as the team’s starter this season. (AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)

The case of under in Lance’s totals

Lance does not have a typical injury risk. He’s going to outrun most quarterbacks. He’s more likely to waste time than, say, Mac Jones or another pocket quarterback. That’s his playstyle risk.

While it seems unlikely, there’s also a chance that Lance could lose his job. It seems inconceivable that Jimmy Garoppolo could resurface, but he’s still in the cast. More than that, the 49ers have playoff hopes and if Lance isn’t too good – the whole “only 71 passes” thing works both ways – then maybe he won’t make all 17 games.

Lance is also not in a high volume attack. The 49ers would do this most of the time if they could, and presumably that will be the case for an untested quarterback in sophomore year. While we can assume Trevor Lawrence will play 600 times this season, the same isn’t true for Lance. He’ll likely still have 3,450 yards if he starts all 17 games, but there’s less room for him to miss games if he’s not playing as much as other starting quarterbacks.

the verdict

I’m on top of Lance this season. I thought he was the best MVP value bet, along with Lamar Jackson, until the odds dropped to 30-1. And I think it’s still worth trying those odds.

I think he has a good talent and I don’t worry too much about betting the over on his total yardage. I’m going to ditch the touchdown passes as it’s a little harder to come by, although I think he’s going to go over that too. But the passing distance is very low. I’m at risk of injury, but any starting quarterback should throw for 3,450 yards in a 17-game season. Especially a pitch for Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle.

Maybe Lance misses too much time and inferior blows. I’m willing to take that risk.

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